Paul Lefrere
Partner
Strategic Initiatives, Inc.
A former British Open University policy advisor and Microsoft ambassador, Paul Lefrere has the pulse of online learning. He was a keynote speaker at mLearn, attended by mobile and contextual learning practitioners. And he shares his view of the industry in a metaphorical way.
Does e-learning in the U.S. appear Wild West or Industrial Revolution to you?
Both. There are certain pioneer areas of high worth like health informatics--wide open, not too much competition, name your price, almost Wild West. Then there's 'back east' where curricula and attitudes are so well established as to be commodities. That sector is highly competitive and low-margin, and the profits come from industrialization.
What matters most to industrialized providers?
Three things should strike fear in the hearts of the purveyors in the industrial side. 1) Something free. 2) Something perfect. 3) Something available now. When any two are present they are the perfect storm of competition. Open courseware is something free. If it teaches well and it meets the learner's needs it's perfect enough and available enough to keep a learner from looking elsewhere. So, if you're building an online course, and there's a competitor that meets two of those three, you're headed for trouble. Meanwhile, the purveyors in the Wild West don't have to be free or perfect now -just available.
What's on the horizon for industrialized providers?
There was more than one Industrial Revolution. Similarly there are at least two generations of e-learning out there now. One is the virtual learning environment (VLE) generation. It relies on up-front investment and then attracting customers. Meanwhile, the VLE learner gets a 'manufactured product'--the same curriculum as each other similarly enrolled student. I'm noticing a migration away from that. For one thing, investment in advance is falling out of favor. So now we're seeing the advent of the personal learning environment (PLE).
Is this economy a fertile field for PLE?
Personal means 'I want to cut a learning deal that's good for me, and not necessarily for anyone else.' So in that sense, this economy is quite right for PLE. What's needed are attitudinal changes within colleges that will accommodate such a change. The reward for schools in a PLE marketplace is that they will be able to play to their strengths. And perhaps charge a premium for it.
Can an online provider expect to own a niche for an extended period of time?
They used to be able to do so. Today the competition can emulate their offerings and their success much quicker. As in the Gold Rush, most prospectors want to be digging in the same place.
How might a potential competitor take the pulse of the marketplace?
There are places where success is visible--and in large numbers. For example, iTunes University is like a shop window. Each purveyor can see every other purveyor's wares and can identify what contributes to success or failure. British Open University is the top player there with more than 10 million downloads year-to-date in 2009.
How can success be maintained?
The best way is to anticipate learner needs. British Open University has an innovative edge with Web 2.0 for everyone.
Do you see a killer app on the near horizon?
I see a killer opportunity. Most people have very few Aha! moments in their lives. When educators successfully pool their resources, they'll concisely explain and understand what makes online learning work. Then they'll become adept at producing Aha! moments with greater frequency. That will produce in learners a feeling of value, a feeling of achievement and a mastery of threshold concepts.